The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins, both vying for positions in the National League wild-card race, are set to face off in a Saturday night showdown at Citizens Bank Park.
Veteran right-handers will take the mound, with Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies and Johnny Cueto for the Marlins.
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday’s MLB betting lines initially favored the Phillies and Nola at around -180 over the Marlins and Cueto. However, early wagers have shifted the odds to -185 in favor of Philadelphia.
Marlins-Phillies Betting Preview
Miami took the series opener on Friday night with a 3-2 victory. Despite falling behind by two runs early in the game, the Marlins mounted a comeback, scoring twice in the sixth inning and once in the seventh to secure the win. They did so as +120 underdogs, and the game finished below the nine-run total.
With this win, the Marlins have extended their recent hot streak to 7-1 over their last eight games. They now hold a 73-68 record and trail the Arizona Diamondbacks by just half a game in the race for the final NL wild-card spot.
In contrast, the Phillies have been somewhat inconsistent lately, going 3-2 in their last five games. However, they still maintain a solid 77-63 overall record, leading the NL wild-card race by four games over the Marlins.
Miami currently leads the season series against the Phillies, having won six out of the eleven matchups.
Saturday’s Pitching Match-Up
Aaron Nola has delivered quality starts in two of his last three outings. However, he struggled in his most recent appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing seven runs over 4 2/3 innings in a 7-5 Phillies loss. In the two starts before that, Nola limited the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants to just two runs over 14 innings, accumulating 14 strikeouts.
Philadelphia holds a 15-13 record in games started by Nola this season, and he has been particularly effective in his last five starts, with the Phillies winning four of those games.
Nevertheless, Nola has struggled against the Marlins this season, giving up nine runs (eight earned) and 17 hits, including four home runs, over 11 2/3 innings in two starts. Both games resulted in losses for Philadelphia, with the total runs surpassing the over line.
Johnny Cueto, on the other hand, has not performed well in his recent outings, going winless in his last five quality starts. Last Saturday, he allowed three runs and five hits, including two home runs, in five innings during an 11-5 Marlins victory over the Washington Nationals. Over his last five starts, Cueto has surrendered 18 earned runs and nine home runs in 27 1/3 innings, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio has been unfavorable.
Miami has posted a 2-5 record in games started by Cueto this season, reflecting his struggles.
In his lone start against the Phillies this season, which took place last month in Miami, Cueto held a 2-1 lead through six innings but gave up a couple of runs in the seventh, resulting in a loss.
Splits With the Sticks
The Marlins have a .250 batting average against right-handed pitching this season, along with a .309 team on-base percentage and a .396 team slugging percentage.
In contrast, the Phillies have performed better against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .260 batting average, a .330 on-base percentage, and a .433 slugging percentage.
The Bullpens
Philadelphia’s bullpen has maintained a 3.71 ERA this season, complemented by a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.67 K/BB ratio.
The Marlins’ bullpen, on the other hand, has a higher ERA at 4.21, along with a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.69 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Miami has a 33-36 record on the road this season and a 56-51 record against right-handed starters.
Philadelphia has been strong at home with a 41-27 record and holds a 50-45 record against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
In terms of totals, the under has hit 72 times in Marlins games this season and 68 times in Phillies games. When playing at Citizens Bank Park, the under has hit 32 times.
