The Yankees and Mets wrap up their Subway Series on Sunday night with a pivotal rubber match featuring two lefties – Max Fried for the Yankees and David Peterson for the Mets. We examine the key factors and provide our best betting pick.
After splitting the first two games of this Subway Series, the Mets and Yankees play the rubber match in this week’s edition of Sunday night MLB betting action. The Yankees are currently priced at -180 favorites, with Fried’s dominance being a major factor.
Starting Pitching Matchup: Significant Edge to Yankees
Max Fried (NYY): 6-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
David Peterson (NYM): 2-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Max Fried has been nothing short of exceptional for the Yankees in 2025. He currently leads MLB with a microscopic 1.05 ERA and ranks 6th with a 0.91 WHIP. His perfect 6-0 record demonstrates how effectively he’s giving the Yankees opportunities to win every time he takes the mound.
In his most recent outing against Seattle, Fried was solid once again, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits over 5 innings. This continues a remarkable stretch where he’s allowed just 2 earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 32 2/3 innings with a superb 24:8 K:BB ratio.
David Peterson has been respectable but not nearly as dominant for the Mets. With a 2-2 record and 3.05 ERA, he’s providing quality innings, but his 1.35 WHIP indicates he’s allowing more baserunners. Peterson’s last start against Pittsburgh saw him yield 2 earned runs over 6 innings on 5 hits, requiring 100 pitches.
Offensive Analysis: Both Teams vs. Lefties
With both starters being southpaws, how each lineup performs against left-handed pitching becomes particularly relevant:
Mets vs. LHP: .262 BA / .351 OBP / .423 SLG
Yankees vs. LHP: .277 BA / .366 OBP / .517 SLG
The Yankees hold a significant advantage in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, which could be decisive against Peterson. Their .517 slugging percentage against lefties ranks among the best in baseball, while the Mets’ power numbers against southpaws are merely average.
Bullpen Comparison: Edge to Mets
Yankees Bullpen: 3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB
Mets Bullpen: 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.69 K/BB
If this game becomes a battle of bullpens, the Mets hold the statistical advantage. Their relief corps has been slightly more effective across all key metrics. However, with Fried on the mound, the Yankees may not need to rely heavily on their bullpen.
Team Form and Trends
Both teams come into this matchup in good form:
Mets Recent Form: 6-3 over last nine games (29-17 overall, 1st in NL East)
Yankees Recent Form: 4-2 over last six games (26-19 overall, 1st in AL East)
Historical context is worth noting – the Mets swept the Yankees 4-0 in their 2024 meetings, but the Yankees won Friday’s series opener 6-2 before the Mets bounced back with a 3-2 win on Saturday.
Total Runs Outlook
The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, but recent trends strongly favor the under:
- The Under is a combined 50-36 in Mets and Yankees games this season
- The Under is 13-10 at Yankee Stadium in 2025
- Both starting pitchers have been stingy with runs allowed
