The Mets roll into Fenway carrying a superior record and one of the most red-hot arms in baseball. Kodai Senga has been absolutely cooking lately with a microscopic 0.99 ERA over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Boston continues to hover below .500 despite solid home production. This line is surprisingly tight considering the pitching mismatch, creating some serious Monday night value.
Sharp Money Take
We’ve seen steady Mets money since opening, pushing this from New York -115 to the current -124 price. That might not seem like a massive shift, but in baseball, a 9-cent move tells us something significant. The sharps are all over the Mets here, especially with Senga on the bump. The total has held steady at 9, though we’re not seeing any decisive action on either side.
What’s really interesting is the runline juice shifting from Mets -1.5 (+108) to the current +113, suggesting some professional bettors think there’s value on Boston keeping it close, even as the moneyline moves toward New York.
Key Matchup Analysis
Senga has been absolutely lights out across his last five starts. We’re talking about a 0.99 ERA and opponents having virtually no success against him. His ghostfork pitch continues to baffle hitters, generating a 1.3 GB:FB ratio that keeps the ball in the park – he hasn’t allowed a home run during this stretch.
Boston’s offense has been productive at Fenway, scoring 4.88 runs per game at home compared to New York’s 4.51 runs per game overall. The Red Sox have been more boom-or-bust though, while the Mets bring a more consistent approach.
The bullpen comparison is where New York really gains an edge. The Mets’ relievers post a 3.05 ERA compared to Boston’s 3.72, though both units have been relatively fresh recently. Edwin Diaz has looked sharp in his recent outings, not allowing a run in his last three appearances.
Situational Factors
The Mets have won 6 of their last 10 overall and have historically played well at Fenway, taking 3 of the last 5 meetings there. What’s particularly notable is how Boston has struggled against right-handed pitching lately, especially the elite variety.
Senga does have limited history against Boston, with just one previous outing last July where he allowed 3 runs in 3.1 innings. But that was early in his MLB adjustment period – he’s a completely different pitcher now with far better command.
The weather forecast calls for typical mid-May Boston conditions – comfortable temps with minimal wind – which shouldn’t affect play or give either team an advantage.
Statistical Edges
The biggest edge jumps out in the pitching matchups. New York’s staff leads in nearly every category:
- Mets starters: 2.80 ERA vs. Boston’s 4.45 ERA
- Mets overall pitching: 2.91 ERA vs. Boston’s 4.16 ERA
- Mets relievers WHIP: 1.20 vs. Boston’s 1.22
Where Boston does maintain an advantage is in offensive production at home, particularly in batting average (0.259 vs. New York’s 0.230). However, the Mets have been far more efficient at preventing runs, allowing just 3.32 runs per game compared to Boston’s 4.71.
In head-to-head matchups, New York has won 6 of the last 10 meetings, with 4 of those games going under the total. The teams haven’t met yet this season, but historical trends favor the visitors.
