After taking the first game of this three-game set at Fenway Park Monday night, the Red Sox meet the Mets again Tuesday night.
Walker Buehler (supposedly) returns from injured list to make a start for Boston here against former Yankee Clay Holmes for New York.
How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Tuesday’s baseball betting market opened the Mets at around -130 over Boston, with an O/U of 9. Early betting action shaved that line to -125.
Mets-Red Sox Betting Preview
Boston grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 3-1. The Red Sox got all they would need with two runs in the first inning and one in the second and hung on from there.
Boston won Monday as a +105 underdog against Kodai Senga and the game played under a total of 9, as the teams combined to bat 2-19 with RISP.
With Monday’s win, the Red Sox are 2-1 over their last three games. At 24-25 overall, Boston trails Cleveland by 2.5 games in the battle for the No. 6 spot in the American League playoff standings.
With Monday’s loss, New York is 1-4 over its last five games. At 29-19 overall, the Mets now trail first-place Philadelphia by a half-game in the NL East.
These teams met once last season, in September, when the Mets, right at the start of their late-season run, swept three games from the Sox at Citi Field.
Tuesday’s Pitching Match-Up
Buehler is making his first start in almost a month, after doing some time on the IL with a sore shoulder. By our accounting he’s only 2/6 on quality starts this season. However, over his last four outings, including a winning one last time out against Cleveland April 26, he allowed just seven ER and 18 hits through 24 1/3 innings, with eight walks against 22 strikeouts.
Boston is 5-1 with Buehler this season, and he can claim some credit for that.
In his most recent start against the Mets, which came for the Dodgers in the NLCS last year, Buehler worked around three hits, two walks, and one HBP to toss four scoreless innings in an 8-0 Los Angeles victory.
Holmes is two for his last five on quality starts, going all-right as of late. Last Wednesday, against Pittsburgh, he gave up four runs in six innings of a loss of 4-0 Mets. But over his five starts previous to that, he only allowed 6 ER and 21 hits through 28 innings.
New York is 7-2 with Holmes this year, although 6-3 would probably more accurately describe his overall performance.
Last year, while with the Yankees, Holmes made five appearances against the Red Sox, allowing three runs and five hits through five total innings, with one walk against four strikeouts.
Advantage: Mets, but it’s close.
Splits With the Sticks
New York is batting .246 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .325 team OBP and a .414 team slugging percentage. The Mets have also been held to a total of 10 runs over their last six games.
Boston is slashing .248/.317/.423 against RH pitching.
Advantage: A wash.
The Bullpens
The Red Sox bullpen owns a 3.63 ERA this season, along with a 1.25 WHIP and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.
The Mets pen owns a 3.01 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 2.54 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.
Advantage: Mets, but it’s close.
MLB Betting Trends
New York is 12-14 on the road this season and 24-14 against RH starters.
Boston is 13-11 at home and 20-19 against RH starters.
Totals Report
The Under is 28-17 in Mets games this season.
The Under is 13-10 at Fenway Park this season.
Prop Bets
New York IF Lindor, who’s 1/22 over his last six games, is catching +115 to hit over 1.5 total bases.
