Stephen Kolek San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher

Mariners vs. Padres Prediction: Kolek vs. Evans (May 16)

By Darin Zank

The Padres own the better record than the Mariners but Seattle is a division leader, heading into the opener of this three-game series at Petco Park Friday night.

Former property of the Mariners Stephen Kolek gets the start for San Diego here against rookie righty Logan Evans for Seattle.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

Mariners-Padres Betting Preview

  • Seattle lost 2 of 3 vs. Yankees (lost rubber match 3-2).
  • Mariners are 1-5 in their last six games.
  • Seattle is 23-19 overall, leading AL West by 0.5 game.
  • San Diego won 2 of 3 vs. Angels (won rubber match 5-1).
  • Padres are 4-2 in their last six games.
  • San Diego is 27-15 overall, trailing NL West leader by 1 game.
  • Last season: Mariners swept 2 in San Diego, series split 2-2 in Seattle.

Friday’s Pitching Match-Up

  • Stephen Kolek (SD): Near 2/2 on quality starts. Recent: 5.1 IP, 0 ER vs. PIT; CG shutout vs. COL (5 hits). 2024 Relief: 5.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP. vs. SEA (2024): 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO.
  • Logan Evans (SEA): 0/3 on quality starts. Recent: 5 IP, 2 ER vs. MIA (win); 5 IP, 6 R (1 ER) vs. TEX; 5 IP, 3 ER vs. TOR (loss). Mariners are 1-2 with Evans starting (Overs 3-0). First career start vs. Padres.

Splits With the Sticks

  • Seattle vs. RHP: .240 AVG, .333 OBP, .404 SLG. 3 or fewer runs in 5 of last 6 games.
  • San Diego vs. RHP: .271 AVG, .339 OBP, .409 SLG. 5+ runs in 5 of last 6 games.

The Bullpens

  • San Diego: 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB (Top 2-3 in MLB).
  • Seattle: 3.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.25 K/BB.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 10-8 on the road, 14-15 vs. RH starters.
  • San Diego is 16-5 at home, 21-9 vs. RH starters.
  • San Diego is 16-8 this season as a run line favorite.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 7-3 in Seattle’s last 10 games.
  • Overs are 5-1 in San Diego’s last six games.
  • Unders are 12-8 at Petco Park this season.

Prop Board

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) over 2.5 total bases (+140).

Free MLB Pick

We give San Diego our handicapping checkmarks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpen comparison. So, we like the Padres. We also like taking chances, so we’ll chase the better price and play San Diego against the run line (+140).

Free Pick: Take the San Diego Padres on the Runline
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