After taking the first two games of this series, the Yankees shoot for the sweep Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium.
New York’s Clarke Schmidt comes off the IL to make his first start of this season against lefty Kris Bubic for Kansas City.
Which way are we going for our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Wednesday’s baseball betting market opened in New York at around -165 over KC, with an O/U of 8.5. Early betting action pushed that line to -170.
Royals-Yankees Betting Preview
New York took the opener of this series Monday night 4-1, then took Tuesday’s game 4-2. The Yankees won Monday as -145 favorites, then at -250 with Max Fried Tuesday. The Yanks also covered against the run line in both games at prices of +140 and -120.
With Tuesday’s win, New York is 3-1 over its last four games.
With Tuesday’s loss, Kansas City is 1-4 over its last five games.
Last year, the Yankees took the regular-season series from the Royals five games to two, then beat KC in the divisional round of the AL playoffs three games to one.
Wednesday’s Pitching Match-Up
Schmidt is making his first appearance of this season, starting late as he recovered from a shoulder injury suffered in Spring Training.
Last year, Schmidt hit just 2/16 on quality starts, pitching on a short leash. Seven times, he pitched within three outs or less of a QS, only to get pulled. On the season Schmidt posted a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP through 85 total innings, as New York played 11-5 for him.
In his only outing vs. Kansas City last year, in Game 3 of that playoff series, Schmidt allowed two runs and four hits through 4 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Yankees victory.
Meanwhile, Bubic is 3/3 on quality starts this year. First, he held Milwaukee scoreless through six innings of an 11-1 Royals win. Then he held Baltimore to one unearned run through 6 2/3 innings of a 4-1 KC victory. Then last Friday, he allowed three runs – two earned – and six hits through six innings against Cleveland, although the Royals lost that game 7-0.
So KC is 2-1 with Bubic this season, and while the overs are 2-1, that’s a bit misleading, considering his overall performance.
Over four appearances against the Yankees last season, two during the regular season and two in the playoffs, Bubic allowed one ER and four hits through 5 1/3 innings, with three walks and five strikeouts.
We give Bubic the edge in this pitching match-up.
Splits With the Sticks
Kansas City is batting .202 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .265 team OBP and a .305 team slugging percentage. The Royals have also been held to three runs or fewer seven times over their last eight games.
New York is slashing .273/.357/.527 against left-handed pitching.
Advantage: Yankees.
The Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.38 ERA this season, along with a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.10 K/BB ratio.
The Royals pen owns a .370 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 1.89 K/BB ratio.
Advantage: Yankees.
MLB Betting Trends
Kansas City played 70-55 against RH starters last year, but it’s only 7-9 vs. righties this season.
New York played 21-23 against LH starters last year and it’s only 2-3 vs. lefties this season.
Totals Report
- The Under is 11-7 in Royals games this season.
- The overs are 10-6 in Yankees games.
- The Over is 7-4 at Yankee Stadium this season.
- The Under is 7-4 in Royals-Yankees games last season and the first two games of this series played under, too.
Prop Board
Kansas City SS Bobby Witt, who’s slugging .507 this season, is catching +115 to go over 1.5 total bases.
