The Houston Astros own a 2-0 lead on the Tampa Bay Rays in this American League divisional-round playoff series and shoot for the sweep when the teams meet for Game 3 Monday afternoon in Florida. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
MLB betting odds opened Houston at around -155 for Game 3 over Tampa Bay, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -150.
The Astros could also be found getting around +115, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Astros vs. Rays Game 3 Set-Up
Houston took the opener of this ALDS last Friday 6-2, then won Game 2 Saturday 3-1. The Astros won Game 1 as -235 favorites with one Cy Young contender, Justin Verlander, then won Game 2 at -270 with another Cy Young candidate, Gerrit Cole.
Houston also covered against the run line both those games.
Also, while Game 1 sneaked over a total of 7.5 when the Rays scored two late, meaningless runs, Game 2 played under that same total of 7.5.
Tampa Bay got the winning run on base with one out in the top of the ninth inning in Game 2 but came up empty.
Going back into the regular season, the Astros are 14-2 over their last 16 games, while the Rays are 1-4 over their last five games.
Houston finished 11 games ahead of Tampa in the American League standings, but the Rays took the regular-season series from the Astros four games to three.
Game 3 Starting Arms
Former Astro Morton, by our strict standards, is 16/34 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last Wednesday, in the American League wild-card game, Morton held Oakland to one run – zero earned – and five hits through five innings of that 5-1 Tampa win. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed just three runs – two earned – and 11 hits through 17 1/3 innings.
On the season, the Rays are 23-11 with Morton, 6-0 over his last six starts.
In two starts this season against Houston, Morton gave up eight runs and ten hits through nine innings. Tampa Bay split those two games.
Greinke is 22/33 on quality starts this year, and three for his last four. Most recently, 12 days ago, Greinke held Seattle scoreless on two hits through 8 1/3 innings of a 3-0 Astros victory. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed five runs and 17 hits through 25 1/3 innings.
Houston is 8-2 with Greinke this year, 4-0 over his last four starts.
In his only start against the Rays this season, back in August, Greinke got nicked for five runs and six hits, including two home runs, through 5 2/3 innings of a 9-8 Astros loss.
Game 3 Batting Splits
Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those are why we rank this lineup as the best in Baseball in this split.
Tampa batted .253/.325/.436 against RH pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Astros bullpen put up a 3.75 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this year while holding foes to a .694 OPS.
The Rays bullpen posted a Major League-low 3.66 ERA this season and a 1.20 WHIP, while also holding opponents to a .694 OPS.
Both these bullpens rank among the top three or four in Baseball.
MLB Betting Trends
- Houston played 47-34 on the road this season.
- Houston played 68-44 against right-handed starters this season.
- Tampa played 48-33 at home this season.
- Tampa Bay played 62-41 against RH starters this season.
Totals Report
- Overs played 77-75 in Rays games this season.
- Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
- Overs played 39-34 in games played at Tropicana Field this season.
- Unders are 5-4 in Astros-Rays games this season.
- Unders are a combined 23-20 with Morton and Greinke this season.
- Get more details: Astros at Rays MLB Match-up Stats
