Following a rain-out Wednesday night, the Astros and Yankees take another shot at playing Game 4 of this American League Championship Series Thursday night in the Bronx. Houston leads this series 2-1, after taking Game 3 Tuesday, but New York is lined as a small home favorite for Game 4. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
MLB playoff betting odds opened New York at -130 for Game 4 over Houston, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 8.5.
Astros vs. Yankees Game 4 Set-Up
After splitting the first two games of this ALCS down in Houston, the Astros took a 2-1 series lead with a 4-1 victory Tuesday night. Houston won Game 3 as a -160 post-time favorite with Gerrit Cole, and the game played under a total of 7.5 runs.
In fact, the under has hit in all three games in this ALCS, as these two teams have combined to score just 17 runs total.
With Tuesday’s win, the Astros are 5-3 in these MLB playoffs.
With Tuesday’s loss, New York is 4-2 in these playoffs.
Houston took the regular-season series from the Yankees this year four games to three.
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Game 4 Starting Arms
This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 1 of this ALCS, a 7-0 New York victory.
Tanaka, by our strict standards, is 16/33 on quality starts this season and one for two in these American League playoffs. Last Saturday, in Game 1 of this ALCS, Tanaka tossed six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in that 7-0 Yanks win. And one week before that, in that ALDS against Minnesota, he allowed just one run and three hits through five innings of an 8-2 Yankees victory.
Going back into the regular season, Tanaka has allowed just four runs – three earned – and 13 hits through his last 21 innings.
For the season, New York is 21-12 with Tanaka, 3-0 over his last three starts.
Over three starts against the Astros this season, including Game 1 of this series, Tanaka allowed just three runs and 12 hits through 18 innings. The Yankees won two of those three games.
Greinke is 23/33 on quality starts this year but 0/2 in these playoffs. Last Saturday, in Game 1 of this series, he gave up three runs and seven hits, including two home runs, through six innings of that 7-0 Houston loss. And ten days ago, in that ALDS against Tampa Bay, he got bopped for six runs and three home runs through just 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 Astros defeat.
Going back into the regular season, Greinke has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits, including six dingers, over his last 23 innings.
Houston is 8-4 with Greinke this year, but 0-2 over his last two starts.
Over three starts against New York this season, two back while he was still with Arizona, Greinke allowed six runs and 14 hits through 18 2/3 innings. His teams lost two of those three games.
Game 4 Batting Splits
Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against right-handed pitching during the regular season. But those numbers have dropped to .225/.296/.374 in these playoffs, as the Astros have scored a total of 26 runs through eight playoff games.
New York batted .265/.336/.484 against RH pitching during the regular season, and it’s batting .258/.349/.463 against righties in these playoffs, as the Yankees have scored 33 runs through six postseason games. However, Giancarlo Stanton missed Games 2 and 3 of this ALCS with a bad quad, and he’s iffy for Game 4.
The Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS. New York relievers have since allowed seven earned runs and 16 hits through 28 2/3 innings of work in these playoffs.
The Astros pen posted a 3.75 ERA this year and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS. Houston relievers have since allowed 11 ER and 27 hits through 22 1/3 innings in these playoffs.
MLB Betting Trends
- Houston finished 47-34 on the road this season.
- New York finished 57-24 at home this season.
- Houston played 68-44 against right-handed starters this season.
- New York played 70-41 against RH starters this season.
Totals Report
- Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
- Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
- Totals are split 5-5 in Yankees-Astros games this season.
- Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
- Get more details: Astros at Yankees MLB Match-up Stats
Astros at Yankees Prediction 10/17/19
We’re giving Tanaka the edge in the pitching match-up, and with other factors basically equaling out, we like New York to take Game 4 for our free MLB playoff pick here.
Take the Yankees -130
