After splitting the first two games of this American League Championship Series in Houston, the Astros and Yankees move to New York for Games 3, 4, and 5 Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, weather permitting. The Pinstripes are lined as home dogs for Game 3 against Gerrit Cole, and they were only 3-4 in that spot during the regular season. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
MLB playoff betting odds opened Houston at around -160 for Game 3 over NY, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Astros to about a nickel, to -165.
Astros vs. Yankees Set-Up
New York grabbed the opener of this ALCS Saturday night in Houston 7-0, but the Astros salvaged the split of those first two games at home with a 3-2 extra-inning victory Sunday.
The Yankees cashed in as +135 underdogs against Zack Greinke Saturday, while Houston won as a -175 favorite with Justin Verlander Sunday.
Also, both those games played under their totals.
With Sunday’s win, the Astros are 4-3 in these MLB playoffs.
With Sunday’s loss, New York is 4-1 in these playoffs.
Houston took the regular-season series from the Yankees this year four games to three.
Game 3 Starting Arms
Severino is 0/4 on quality starts this season, which for him just began about a month ago, following a lengthy rehab from injury. But he’s been good since his return. Over three short outings to close out the regular season, Severino allowed just two runs and six hits through 12 innings, with 17 strikeouts against six walks. Then in Game 3 of that ALDS sweep against Minnesota last Monday, he tossed four innings of four-hit, shutout ball in a 5-1 New York victory.
So the Yankees are 3-1 with Severino this year.
In two starts against the Astros, last season Severino allowed just two runs and nine hits through 16 innings, with 21 strikeouts against two walks. The Yanks won both those games.
Probable AL Cy Young Award winner Cole is 27/35 on quality starts this year and 2/2 in these playoffs. Ten days ago, in Game 2 of that AL divisional-round series against Tampa Bay, Cole threw 7 2/3 innings of four-hit, shutout ball, striking out 15 against one walk, in a 3-1 Houston victory. Then last Thursday, in the decisive Game 5, Cole allowed just one run and two hits through eight innings, with 10 K’s, in that 6-1 Astros win.
For the season, Houston is 28-7 with Cole and 15-0 over his last 15 starts!
In his one start, this year against the Yankees Cole allowed three runs and four hits through seven innings of a 6-3 Astros win back in April.
Game 3 Batting Splits
Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against right-handed pitching this season. Those numbers help this lineup rank as the best in Baseball in this split.
New York batted .265/.336/.484 against RH pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in Baseball. However, the Yanks could be down a big stick if Giancarlo Stanton, who missed Game 2 with a bad quad, can’t go.
The Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS.
The Astros pen put up a 3.75 ERA this year and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS.
MLB Betting Trends
- Houston finished 47-34 on the road this season.
- New York finished 57-24 at home this season.
- Houston played 68-44 against right-handed starters this season.
- New York played 70-41 against RH starters this season.
Totals Report
- Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
- Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
- Overs are 5-4 in Yankees-Astros games this season.
- Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
- Get more details: Astros at Yankees MLB Match-up Stats
