Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Odds, Analysis & Free Pick

Starting Pitchers: Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs. Chris Archer (0-0, 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

High Contact Rate

If you’re looking for a prop play in this one, backing Jose Urquidy to go under his strikeout totals might be the way to go. So far, Urquidy has only topped three strikeouts in one of five starts this season, an 11-7 win over the Blue Jays in which he lasted five innings and gave up four earned runs while fanning six. Most times on the hill, Urquidy has pitched to contact and gotten outs more often than not. He’s held the opposition to two runs or less in three of his five appearances while never going less than five innings in any of those trips to the mound. Against the Twins, there’s some potential for strikeouts, but not a ton. Minnesota is average at putting the ball in play, as the Twins rank 16th in the majors in the number of strikeouts on the campaign. If they can get a few players on early, this prop is likely looking like an Under play.

Locking It Down

If you’ve been paying close attention to the Astros’ scores, you’d know that Houston is basically allowing next to nothing from opposing offenses. If you’d simply played “Astros opponent team total under 3.5 runs” for the past 14 games, you’d have gone 13-1 on your bets and won the past ten times. Not coincidentally, the Astros are 12-2 in that string of games and have allowed a mere 26 runs, less than two per game. Unlike a lot of teams, Houston has no fear of letting teams get into its bullpen, and it shouldn’t. The Astros have proven outstanding at closing out games when they get a chance, boasting a bullpen ERA of 2.58, behind only the Yankees’ 2.38. If there is any scoring early, it might be wise to take the live total under, as Minnesota also boasts a sharp bullpen, posting a 2.91 ERA when the starter comes out of the game. Over the final four innings, this could be very low scoring.

Northern Fortress

Minnesota has one big reason for its position on top of the AL Central: its ability to win games at home. The Twins are a staggering 9-1 in their past ten games at Target Field, and their home crowds are a big reason why. Target Field has continued to draw in fans even after the shine of the new ballpark wore off, and Minnesota is clearly answering the bell at this point.

The loss to Houston in the first game of the series marked the first time all year that Minnesota had lost at home, which is a remarkable feat on its own. If the Twins can keep playing like this at home, they’ll be in good shape as far as having a chance to spoil the party for the White Sox, who haven’t looked anything like world beaters this season.

Betting Trends

• The Twins are 5-1 in their past six against the AL West.
• The Twins are 9-1 in their past 10 home contests.
• The Astros are 13-3 in their past 16 road games.
• The Astros are 10-1 in their past 11 games following a victory.
• The under is 5-0 in the Astros’ past five games against the AL Central.
• The under Is 7-1 in the Astros’ past eight road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Twins’ past five games after a loss.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the Twins’ past four home games.
• The under is 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings.
• The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Minnesota.
• The Astros have won five of their past six trips to Target Field

Weather Report

This is going to be an ugly day for baseball, with the mercury hitting 93 degrees at first pitch. All the wind will do is knock a few balls down, as it’s set to blow at 14 miles per hour coming in from right field.