The Astros took the first game of this four-game series in Toronto back on Monday but the Blue Jays took the next two, setting up this interesting series finale Thursday night. Jose Berrios gets the call for the Jays here against lefty Framber Valdez for Houston. How are we playing this game with our free Hou/Tor 6/8/23 pick?
Thursday’s baseball betting market opened Houston and Valdez as -130 favorites over Toronto and Berrios, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Betting action has dipped the Astros down to -115 and the total to 8.
Astros-Blue Jays Betting Preview
Houston won the first game of this series Monday 11-4 but Toronto won Tuesday 5-1 and Wednesday 3-2. The Astros won Monday as +105 underdogs while the Blue Jays won Tuesday at -140 with Kevin Gausman and Wednesday at -145 with Chris Bassitt. Also, Monday’s game played over a total of 9.5 while Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games played under eight and under nine. With Wednesday’s win Toronto is 8-2 over its last 10 games. At 35-28 overall the Blue Jays sit in sixth place in the American League playoff standings. With Wednesday’s loss Houston is 1-3 over its last four games. At 36-26 overall the Astros occupy fourth place in the AL standings. These teams hae split six meetings so far this season.
Thursday’s Pitching Match-Up
Berrios is 7/12 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Saturday he held the Mets to one run and four hits through six innings of a 2-1 Toronto victory. And over his last four starts he’s allowed just five runs and 19 hits through 25 1/3 innings, with 11 walks, which is a bit too much, against 22 strikeouts. The Blue Jays are 7-5 with Berrios this season, 5-1 his last six times out. Over his last two starts against Houston, one early last season and one earlier this season, Berrios held them to three runs and 10 hits through 12 2/3 innings. Toronto split those two games. Valdez is an impressive 10/12 on quality starts this year and three for his last three. Last Friday he held the Angels scoreless on five hits through seven frames of a 6-2 Astros win. And over his last three starts – two of which came against Oakland – he allowed just one run and 13 hits through 22 innings, with four walks against 19 whiffs. Houston is 7-5 with Valdez this season but 5-0 his last five times out. In his only career start against the Blue Jays, early last season, Valdez tossed five scoreless innings, then gave up three runs in the next 1 1/3 in a 3-2 Astros loss.
Splits With the Sticks
Houston is batting .245 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .389 team slugging percentage. Toronto is slashing .261/.324/.382 against left-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
The Blue Jays bullpen owns a 3.69 ERA this season, along with a 1.20 WHIP and a ML-best 3.09 K/BB ratio. The Astros pen owns a 3.33 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.96 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Houston is 18-12 on the road this season and 25-21 against right-handed starters. Toronto is 17-11 at home and 30-22 against left-handed starters.
Totals Report
- The unders are 31-30 in Astros games this season.
- The unders are 31-29 in Blue Jays games.
- The unders are 17-9 at Rogers Centre this season.
