The Seattle Mariners, now a season-high eight games over .500, get a chance to prove they’re not just playoff pretenders when they host the AL West-leading Astros for a three-game divisional series beginning Monday night. Seattle went off this season playing against a wins over/under of 72.5; at 54-46 the Mariners look like they’re headed over on that bet. But they’ve still got work to do to make the playoffs. How are we playing this series opener with our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday’s baseball betting odds opened Houston at around -165, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped the Astros to -175.
Houston could also be found at around -120 giving the run and a half on the run line.
Astros-Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Houston just swept three games at home from Texas over the weekend by scores of 7-3, 4-1 and 3-1 Sunday. Just before that the Astros took two of three from Cleveland. So Houston’s 5-1 over its last six games.
At 61-39 overall the Astros lead the AL West by 5.5 games over second-place Oakland and by seven games over third-place Seattle. Houston is also tied with Boston for the best record in the American League.
Seattle, meanwhile, just took three of four games from the team they’re chasing in the AL wild-card race, the A’s, losing that series opener last Thursday but winning the last three games, each by one run. Just before that the Mariners split two games at Colorado, and just before that they took two of three at the Angels. So Seattle is 6-3 since the All-Star break.
At 54-46 overall the Mariners now sit in third place in the AL wild-card race, just a game and a half back of second-place Oakland.
The Astros lead this season series with Seattle four games to three.
Monday’s Pitching Match-Up
Seattle will send rookie right-hander Darren McCaughan out to make his first ML start Monday night against fellow rookie righty Luis Garcia.
McCaughan just made his ML debut last Wednesday against Colorado and impressed, holding the Rockies to one run on no hits (!) through five innings, with three walks and zero strikeouts, while trying to keep the Mariners in the game.
McCaughan earned his call-up by going 5-4 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in the higher Minors earlier this summer.
Seattle could use McCaughan as an “opener” here, then turn the game over to its bullpen, which isn’t a bad idea, considering the M’s pen ain’t too bad.
Garcia is 6/16 on quality starts this year but that ratio is a bit deceiving. Five other times he’s pitched to within three outs or less of a QS, only to get pulled. Last Tuesday he held Cleveland scoreless on three hits through six innings of a 9-3 Houston victory, and over his last five starts he’s allowed eight runs and 22 hits through 28 innings, with nine walks against 33 strikeouts.
The Astros are 9-7 with Garcia this season and 5-1 over his last six starts.
In his only previous career appearance against Seattle, back in April, Garcia allowed just one run and three hits through five innings, although Houston lost that game 1-0.
Splits With the Sticks
Houston is batting .267 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .337 team OBP and a .436 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top two (along with Toronto) in the Majors in this split.
Seattle is slashing .218/.298/.375 against RH pitching this season. Numbers like those cause us to rank this lineup among the worst three (along with Baltimore and Texas) in the Bigs in this split.
- Get more details: Houston vs. Seattle 7/26/21 Game Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The Houston bullpen owns a 4.05 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.46 K/BB ratio.
The Seattle pen owns a 4.02 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.88 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
- The Astros are 27-19 on the road.
- The Mariners are 32-21 at home.
- The Astros are 37-22 against right-handed starters.
- The Mariners are 33-31 vs. RH starters.
Totals Report
Overs are 56-42 in Astros games.
Overs are 50-47 in Mariners games.
Unders are 4-2 in Astros-Mariners games.
Unders are 10-5 with Garcia this season.
Unders are 30-21 in games played at T-Mobile Park.
