Tylor Megill NY Mets

Cubs vs. Mets Prediction & Run Line Pick: Megill vs. Bullpen (May 10)

By Darin Zank
Date: 10/05/2025 7:15 pm
Location: Citi Field
TV: Fox

Betting Odds



Moneyline: NYM -150/Cubs +130
Total: 8.5

After taking the opener of this series Friday night the Mets go looking for more when the teams meet again at Citi Field Saturday night.

Tylor Megill hits the hill for New York here, but it appears Chicago will go with a bullpen effort, beginning with Brad Keller.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s baseball betting market opened New York and Megill at around -145 over Chicago, with an O/U of 9. Early betting action slid that line to -150.

The Mets could also be found getting around +135, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Cubs-Mets Betting Preview

New York grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 7-2. The Mets jumped on Chicago starter Jameson Taillon for six runs through the first four innings while getting a quality start from Clay Holmes on their way toward the W.

New York won Friday as a -130 favorite on the dime line and catching +145 against the run line. Also, a meaningless Cubs run in the top of the ninth sent the game over a total of 8.

With Friday’s win the Mets are 3-1 over their last four games. And at 25-14 overall New York leads the NL East by 2.5 games over second-place Philadelphia.

With Friday’s loss, Chicago is 1-4 over its last five games. But at 22-17 overall, the Cubs still lead the NL Central by two games over second-place St. Louis.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year, the Mets took the season series from Chicago four games to three.

Saturday’s Pitching Match-Up

Megill is only 1/7 on quality starts this season but that’s a bit misleading. Four times he’s come within three outs or less of a QS, then got pulled. Last Sunday he gave up four runs in five innings of a 5-4 New York loss to the Cardinals. But over his six starts previous to that he only allowed eight earned runs and 23 hits through 31 innings, with 12 walks against 39 strikeouts.

The Mets are only 3-4 with Megill this season, but 4-3 or even 5-2 would more accurately describe his overall performance. Also, the overs are 4-3 with Megill.

In his most recent start against the Cubs, in June of last season, Megill gave up six runs in three innings of an 8-1 New York defeat.

Meanwhile, as mentioned above, it looks like Chicago is going with a bullpen effort Saturday.

Splits With the Sticks

The Cubs are batting .250 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .328 team OBP and a .431 team slugging percentage.

New York is slashing .252/.333/.428 this season. The Mets have also scored at least five runs five times over their last seven games.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns a 3.13 ERA this season, along with a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.98 K/BB ratio.

The Chicago pen owns a 4.51 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 1.67 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

The Cubs are 12-8 on the road this season and 17-13 against RH starters.

The Mets are 14-3 at home.

Totals Report

The unders played 5-2 in Cubs-Mets games last season.

The Under is 11-6 at Citi Field this season.

Prop Board

Cubs OF Tucker, who hit a homer Friday night, is catching +135 to hit over 1.5 total bases.

Free MLB Picks for May 10th

New York is 3-1 over its last four games, and Chicago is 1-4 over its last five. From there, we give the Mets the edge in the pitching match and a short edge with the sticks. So we like New York. However, we’re not too high on that price. So we’ll take a chance, trying to avoid the 17 percent run line risk (in MLB, favorites win by exactly one run about 17 percent of the time), and play the Mets against the run line.

Free Pick: Take the Mets -1.5 runs +135
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