The Braves are trying to protect a big divisional lead while the Reds are trying to creep back into the NL wild-card race, heading into the opener of this four-game series down in Georgia Thursday night. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta at around -140 over Cincinnati, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -150.
Reds vs. Braves Set-Up
Cincinnati just took two of three games at home from Pittsburgh, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 4-1. Just before that the Reds took two of three from Colorado, and just before that they took two of three from Milwaukee. So Cincinnati is 3-0 over its last three series and 6-3 over its last nine games.
At 50-56 overall the Reds trail the division-leading Cubs and Cardinals by 6.5 games in the NL Central, and they’re six games behind Washington in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
Atlanta, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Washington, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 5-4 in 10 innings. The Braves led that game 4-1 into the bottom of the eighth inning, but let the Nationals score three runs to force extra frames but escaped disaster with a Josh Donaldson home run for the win.
Just before that, the Braves took two of three at Philadelphia, so Atlanta is 2-0 over its last two series and 4-2 over its previous six games. At 64-45 overall the Braves lead the NL East by 6.5 games over second-place Washington, and they’re 5.5 games up on the Cubs and Cardinals in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in April, the Reds took two of three games from the Braves in Cincy.
Thursday’s Starting Arms
Lefty Fried, by our stringent standards, is 9/20 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last four. Last Sunday he gave up five runs – four earned – on seven hits, including a couple of homers, through 5 1/3 innings against Philadelphia, although Atlanta won that game anyway 15-7. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed 12 ER and 29 hits through 20 1/3 innings.
The Braves are 14-6 with Fried this season but only 2-2 over his last four starts.
This start will be Fried’s first-ever against Cincinnati.
DeSclafani is only 5/20 on quality starts this year, but he’s been pretty good as of late. Last Sunday he held Colorado to one run and four hits through five innings of a 3-1 Reds win. And over his last five outings, he’s allowed seven ER and 24 hits through 28 2/3 innings.
Cincy is 10-10 with DeSlafani, and while it’s only 1-3 over his last four starts, that’s not his fault.
This start will be DeSlafani’s first against Atlanta since 2016, and that’s too long ago to derive any meaningful handicapping information from.
Thursday’s Batting Splits
Cincinnati is batting .262/.336/.419 against left-handed pitching this season. But the Reds also just traded away a big right-handed bat in Yasiel Puig (23 HR).
Atlanta is batting .263/.338/.457 against right-handed pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Reds bullpen owns a 4.29 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .731 OPS.
The Braves pen owns a 4.14 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP while allowing a .755 OPS. In an effort to bolster this unit Atlanta made deadline trade deals for relievers Shane Green (22 saves, 1.18 ERA), Mark Melancon (3.50) and Chris Martin (3.08), although their availability for this game is uncertain.
Totals Report
- Unders are a lopsided 64-39 in Reds games this season.
- Overs are 54-50 in Braves games this season.
- Overs are 27-23 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
- Unders are 2-1 in Reds-Braves games this season.
- Get more details: Reds at Braves MLB Match-up Stats
