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Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants Pick 5/12/19

By Rich Crew
Date: 12/05/2019 4:05 pm
Location: AT&T Park
TV: NBC Sports Live

Betting Odds



Moneyline: CIN -105 / SF -105
Total: 7ov -112

The Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants will go at it again this afternoon at AT&T Park in San Francisco. The money line is even at most sports betting sites with the odd out slightly favoring the Giants. The total line for this game is listed at 7 runs, and the first pitch is set for 4:05 PM ET.

The Reds took the first two in this series out-scoring the Giants 12-4 and can wrap up their six-game road trip at a 4-2 record with a win today.

The Giants have lost three straight and back to back matches at home to drop their home W/L record to a feeble 7-11.

Team vs. Team

Cincinnati has owned San Francisco over the last 10 games dating back to the previous season winning eight of the last ten contests including three straight at AT&T.

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Starting Pitching Match-up

Tyler Mahle (R):

Has yet to get a win this campaign going 0-5 in seven starts. He doesn’t go deep in games, so his quality start percentage is low, but he gives the team a chance to win in most outings. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his starts and has allowed over four in just one.

Road ERA: 3.97 Road WHIP: 1.21 Madison Baumgarner (L):

His statistical numbers aren’t as strong this season as his 2-4 record, and 3.99 earned a run average show. Baumgarner though has shown flashes of his old self in his last two recording a QS in both starts. Last season in his previous start versus the Reds he was beaten up for six runs (five earned).

Home ERA: 4.74 Home WHIP 1.14

Team Hitting

Cincinnati: The Reds are in the lower level in baseball for many hitting categories, including 30th for batting average, 26th for on-base percentage and 22nd for runs scored. They have hit better as of late, and that has been reflected on the scoreboard with the team putting up four or more runs in seven of their last nine games.

San Francisco: Like the Reds, the Giants are in the bottom of the majors in some of the key batting statistics. They rank 27th in BA, 29th in OBP and 25th in scoring. Recent games have seen an increase in run support scoring or surpassing four runs in five of their last six.

Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
  • San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • San Francisco is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco’s last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Reds vs. Giants Prediction 5/12/19

The Reds starter Tyler Mahle has pitched well enough overall this season and his current form is good, but he has two key stats going against him. He’s struggled in day games this season with a 5.62 ERA, and in a small sample size, the current Giants roster has hit .556 in nine at-bats. Lefty Baumgarner has shown signs in his last two allowing four earned runs, striking out 16, but he did get taken out of the park two times. The long ball has been the problem for him this season with seven in eight games. Cincinnati is one of the better long ball clubs sitting in the seventh spot with 57 on the year. We have two teams hitting over their season average in recent games, trends supporting the OVER and the wind blowing out. The only negative is the home plate umpire who historically favors UNDERs, but I think the low line evens that out.

Free Pick: Take the OVER 7 -112
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