The Cubs and Cardinals commence their 2021 NL Central rivalry series Friday night at Busch Stadium.
It may be a bit early to talk about such things, but St. Louis leads the divisional race by three games over second-place Chicago. And yet, the Cardinals are lined as short home dogs for Friday night. Here’s how we’re handicapping this game, with our free MLB pick at the end.
MLB Betting Odds
Friday’s baseball betting odds opened Chicago and Kyle Hendricks at around -115 over St. Louis and Carlos Martinez, with an over/under of 8.5. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Cubs-Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Chicago just took three of four games at home from Washington, winning Thursday’s series finale 5-2. The Cubs outscored the Nationals for the series 21-12 but only got a total of 19 2/3 innings from their starting pitchers. The bullpen covered the remaining 16 1/3.
Going back to last week, Chicago is 5-2 over its previous seven games.
At 22-21 overall, the Cubs are playing slightly ahead of pace against their wins over/under for this season of 78.5.
St. Louis, meanwhile, just swept two games from Pittsburgh, winning 5-2 Tuesday and 8-5 Wednesday. The Cardinals then had Thursday off.
Going back to last week, though, St. Louis is only 3-4 over its previous seven games.
But at 25-18 overall, the Cardinals are also ahead of pace, playing against their wins O/U of 86.5.
This series is the first meeting between these longtime rivals this season. Last year these two teams split ten meetings.
Friday’s Pitching Match-Up
Martinez is coming off a two-week stint on the DL (sprained ankle) to start this game. So far this season, he’s 3/8 on quality starts and three for his last four. Most recently, back on May 8, Martinez gave up five runs on six hits and five walks through five innings against Colorado, although St. Louis won that game 9-8. But in his three starts previous to that, Martinez only allowed three runs – two earned – and 11 hits over 21 1/3 innings. Also, we don’t mean to jinx him, but Martinez hasn’t allowed a home run over his last 31 1/3 innings.
The Cardinals are 3-4 with Martinez this season, and that sounds about right.
This will be Martinez’s first outing against the Cubs since 2018, when over two starts, he allowed eight ER in 10 total innings. St. Louis lost both those games.
Hendricks is 4/8 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Sunday, he held Detroit to one run and eight hits through eight innings, with no walks and eight strikeouts, in a 5-1 Chicago win. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed eight runs – six earned – and 24 hits through 20 innings.
The Cubs are 3-5 with Hendricks this season but based on his performances, they should be 4-4.
In two starts against the Cardinals, last season Hendricks allowed four runs and ten hits over 14 1/3 innings. Chicago split those two games.
Splits With the Sticks
Chicago is batting .232 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .318 team OBP and a .395 team slugging percentage. The Cubs are also now down one left-handed stick with Jason Heyward on the DL (hamstring), but he’s only hitting .183, so maybe it won’t matter.
St. Louis is batting .229/.303/.388 against right-handed pitching this season.
- Get more details: Cubs vs. Cardinals 5/21/21 Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The Chicago bullpen owns a 3.16 ERA this season, which ranks 4th-best in the Majors, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.44 K/BB ratio.
The Cardinals pen owns a 3.98 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a meager 1.58 K/BB ratio.
Cubs-Cardinals MLB Betting Trends
- St. Louis is 14-8 at home this season.
- Chicago is 6-12 on the road this season.
- St. Louis is 20-15 against right-handed starters this season.
- Chicago is 11-18 against RH starters this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 22-18 in Cubs games this season.
Overs are 20-19 in Cardinals games this season.
Overs are a combined 10-5 with Martinez and Hendricks this season.
Unders are 10-9 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.
