The 2025 MLB season officially kicks off with an intriguing interleague matchup as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Despite both teams coming off playoff appearances and featuring quality starting pitchers in Freddy Peralta and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees are heavy -155 favorites. Our betting expert breaks down why the current price may be overvalued and where the best betting value lies in this Opening Day showdown.
Game Information and Betting Lines
The Dodgers and Cubs played a couple games in Tokyo last week but this new MLB season really begins Thursday afternoon with an Opening Day match-up between the Yankees and Brewers at Yankee Stadium.
New York won the American League pennant last season but then lost two very key players, one to free agency, one to injury, over the off-season.
Meanwhile Milwaukee reached the playoffs again last season but again exited early. And the Brewers also lost a couple key people since then.
Lefty Carlos Rodon gets the Opening Day call for the Pinstripes against Freddy Peralta for the Brew Crew.
Team Overview and Offseason Changes
Milwaukee won 93 games last season to claim its third NL Central title over the last four seasons. The Brewers went off playing against a wins O/U of 84, then over-performed under new Manager Murphy, who won the NL Manager of the Year Award. Milwaukee then led the Mets by two runs in the ninth inning of the final game of an NL wild-card series but saw closer Devin Williams give up a three-run homer to end the season.
Over the off-season the Brewers lost Williams (to the Yankees) and SS Wily Adames but added SP Nestor Cortes (from the Yankees). So this season Milwaukee is hoping for a full campaign from OF Christian Yelich and a breakout season from OF Jackson Chourio.
Heading into Thursday the Brewers were playing against a season wins O/U of 82.5.
Meanwhile New York won 94 games last season to claim its second AL East title in the last three seasons. The Yankees then disposed of Kansas City and Cleveland to win the American League pennant but then lost the World Series in five games to the Dodgers.
Over the off-season New York lost OF Juan Soto but added OF Cody Bellinger, IF Paul Goldschmidt, closer Williams (from the Brewers) and SP Max Fried. The Yanks also lost SP Gerrit Cole for the season to elbow surgery and will begin without SP Luis Gil and OF Giancarlo Stanton.
Add it all up and New York is going off this season playing against a wins O/U of 88.5.
These teams met once last season when the Yanks took two of three games from the Brewers in April in the Bronx. Rodon picked up the W in one of those games.
Starting Pitcher Matchup Analysis
Rodon hit 14/32 on quality starts last season and won a couple games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, his last start of the season didn’t go well when he gave up three home runs in a Game 2 World Series loss in LA.
For the season Rodon posted a 3.96 ERA through 175 innings, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 195/57 K/BB ratio. This while the Yanks played 19-13 with Rodon last year.
In his most recent outing against Milwaukee, in April of last season, Rodon held the Brewers to one run and two hits through six innings, with one walk against eight strikeouts, in a 15-3 New York victory.
Peralta only hit 10/32 on quality starts last year, pitching on a short leash. Seven other times he pitched to within three outs of a QS but got pulled. For the season Peralta posted a 3.68 ERA through 174 innings, with a 1.21 WHIP and a 200/68 K/BB ratio. This while Milwaukee played 19-13 with Peralta.
This will be Peralta’s first-ever start against the Yankees, although there will be at least a couple guys in New York’s line-up Thursday he’s faced before.
Offensive Matchup Analysis
Milwaukee batted .245 against left-handed pitching last season, with a .326 team OBP and a .387 team slugging percentage.
New York slashed .253/.332/.445 against right-handed pitching last year.
Bullpen Comparison
The New York bullpen posted a 3.62 ERA last season, along with a 1.24 WHIP and a 2.62 K/BB ratio.
The Milwaukee pen put up a 3.11 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a 2.87 K/BB ratio.
However, as mentioned above, the Brewers traded closer Williams to the Yankees this off-season.
Key Betting Trends
Milwaukee played 46-35 on the road this season and 24-24 against left-handed starters.
New York played 44-37 at home last year and 73-45 against right-handed starters.
The Overs played 83-71 in Brewers games last season.
The Overs played 86-69 in Yankees games.
The Overs played 45-33 at Yankee Stadium last season.
