The Atlanta Braves face the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park today. Our expert preview analyzes the pitching matchup and key trends, and we have a strong prediction for the game total.
Sharp Money Take
The market is heavily backing the Braves behind ace Chris Sale, but there’s been significant movement on the total. Opening at 8.5 -120, it’s now sitting at 8.0 -113. That half-run drop with accompanying juice shift screams sharp action on the under. While public money naturally flows to Atlanta laying the runline, the professional side seems convinced this matchup stays under the total.
Key Matchup Analysis
This pitching matchup is massively lopsided. Chris Sale has been cooking lately with a 2.63 ERA over his last five starts while averaging 7.8 strikeouts per outing. His history against Pittsburgh is even more dominant – in two career starts against the Pirates, Sale has thrown 14 innings while allowing just one run with 15 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski who’s sporting a brutal 6.16 ERA over his last three starts. The Pirates’ offense compounds the problem, sitting dead last in MLB scoring just 3.10 runs per game. They’ve managed just 5 total runs in the first two games of this series, continuing their offensive struggles.
Situational Factors
The Braves took the series opener 3-2 yesterday after dropping Friday’s game by the same score. While Atlanta has won 5 of their last 7 games, their offense has been ice cold, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 with a high of just 5 runs during that stretch.
Pittsburgh’s offensive woes are even more pronounced. They’ve completely fallen apart, losing 8 of their last 9, while putting up anemic run totals. Over their last 7 games, the Pirates have scored just 12 total runs (1.7 per game), failing to top 3 runs in six of those contests.
PNC Park has been playing extremely pitcher-friendly this season. The under is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 home games, and the total has gone under in 5 straight meetings between these teams. Sunday day games have also been trending under across MLB this season.
Statistical Edges
The bullpen advantage sits firmly with Atlanta. The Braves’ relief corps owns a 3.63 ERA compared to Pittsburgh’s 4.15. Atlanta’s bullpen should be relatively fresh with their key arms getting proper rest over the past few days.
Both offenses have been absolutely dreadful. The two teams combined to score just 5 total runs in each of the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh’s league-worst offense (30th in MLB) is averaging just 3.45 runs at home this season, while scoring a paltry 1.7 runs per game over their last seven contests.
Atlanta’s road offense hasn’t been much better at 3.70 runs per game (20th in MLB). The Braves haven’t topped 5 runs in any of their last 10 games, and they’ve managed just 3 or fewer runs in 7 of those 10. The head-to-head trends have seen 7 of the last 10 meetings at PNC Park go under the total.
