Garrett Crochet has been dominant, and the Blue Jays’ bats have been ice-cold, scoring two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. Even though Toronto beat Crochet and Boston earlier this season, only one of the four runs charged to Crochet was earned. With both offenses trending down and strong starting pitching lined up, will this matchup stay under the number again?
Key Betting Trends
Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+110)
Total: 7.5
- Boston RL Record: 4-1 last 5 road games
- Toronto RL Record: 1-7 last 8 overall
- Head-to-Head Trend: Total has gone UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings
- Boston Last 10 Games: 6-4 SU, 7-3 O/U
- Toronto Last 10 Games: 3-7 SU, 3-7 O/U
Matchup Breakdown
Boston Red Sox Overview:
Boston’s offense has been firing lately, but they’re running into a Toronto staff that has quietly kept games low-scoring at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox’s own starter, Garrett Crochet, has been masterful, posting a 1.95 ERA over his last three starts, including a 5.2-inning outing against Toronto earlier this month where he allowed four runs — but only one was earned.
Toronto Blue Jays Overview:
Toronto’s offensive woes have been glaring — they’ve scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six contests. Even when they managed six runs against Boston earlier this month, three of the four runs off Crochet were unearned. With Bowden Francis struggling to work deep into games, the Jays will likely lean heavily on a bullpen that’s been steady at home.
Key Player Matchups:
Toronto hitters have struggled badly vs Crochet (just a .176 AVG in 34 ABs).
Red Sox hitters are just 3-for-29 (.103) lifetime vs Francis, suggesting a slow start for both sides offensively.
Bullpen usage favors Boston slightly, but both teams’ pens have been effective keeping runs down recently.
Scoring Considerations:
Toronto’s low-scoring trends (UNDER in 5 of last 6 games) and Boston’s ability to pitch effectively on the road make this a prime setup for another tight, low-run affair.
