boston-red-sox-rick-porcello-600_6

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick Analysis

By Rich Crew
Date: 24/04/2018 7:07 pm
Location: Rodgers Centre
TV: NESN / SportsNet

Betting Odds



Moneyline: Red Sox -106 / Jays -104
Total: 8.5 Runs

In their latest, the Red Sox lost to the Oakland A’s 4-1 losing their first series of the season 2-1 to the Athletics. Boston has now lost two straight, but they come into this game with a brilliant 17-4 won/loss mark on the season. The bats came up cold in the last two scoring one run over the two matches resulting in both games going UNDER the total line.

The Blue Jays lost to the New York Yankees 5-1 in their most recent the third time in the four-game series that the Jays didn’t score more than three runs. The loss was their second straight and third in their last four all versus the Yankees.

This season the Red Sox rank 2nd in runs scored and 4th in team ERA and the Blue Jays rank 4th in runs scored and 15th in team ERA.

Get more details: Boston at Toronto MLB Match-Up

Pitching Match-Up

Boston: Rick Porcello (4-0 1.40 ERA)
Toronto: J.A. Happ (3-3 4.50 ERA)

In Porcello’s last start he had a great one going six scores innings and giving up six hits in a 9-0 win over the L.A. Angels. The Red Sox have won all four of his starts this season where he has given up a meager four earned runs in 15 innings of work. Porcello has not given up any earned runs in his last two starts. Boston has won his last six road starts, and last season in four starts against the Blue Jays he was 2-2.

In Happ’s last start he gave up four earned runs over six frames of work in a 15-5 trouncing of the Kansas City Royals. The Blue Jays have won his last three starts, and while he wasn’t ultra-sharp in two of the outings, he did receive a lot of run support with 29 runs scored. In four starts against the Red Sox, last season Happ was 2-0 with a scintillating ERA of 1.94, and the Blue Jays are 5-2 in his previous seven starts against Boston.

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Betting Angles

The Red Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 games against the Blue Jays.

The Red Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 road games against the Blue Jays.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Boston Red Sox: 17-4 SU / O/U 12-8 / Run Line W/L 12-9
Toronto Blue Jays: 13-8 SU / O/U 10-10 / Run Line W/L 12-9

Key Betting Trends

  • BOS is 9-2 in their last 11 road games
  • BOS is 4-0 in their previous four games against a team with a winning record
  • BOS has an Over record of 10-3-1 in their last 14 games
  • TOR is 7-1 in their last eight home games
  • TOR is 13-6 in their previous 19 games
  • TOR has an Over record of 3-1-1 in their last five home games

Key Player Injuries

RED SOX
[2B] 03/29/2018 – Dustin Pedroia 10-day DL (03/29) ( Knee )
[SS] 03/26/2018 – Marco Hernandez 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/26/2018 – Steven Wright 10-day DL (03/26) ( Knee )
[P] 03/30/2018 – Tyler Thornburg 10-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/30/2018 – Austin Maddox 10-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[SS] 04/11/2018 – Xander Bogaerts 10-day DL (04/09) ( Ankle )

BLUE JAYS
[SS] 03/26/2018 – Troy Tulowitzki 60-day DL (03/29) ( Foot )
[CF] 03/29/2018 – Anthony Alford 10-day DL (03/26) ( Hamstring )
[CF] 03/29/2018 – Dalton Pompey 10-day DL (03/26) ( Wrist )
(!)[3B] 04/13/2018 – Josh Donaldson 10-day DL (04/13) ( Shoulder )

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 4/24/18

Boston starter Porcello has been brilliant on the road this season with 0.79 earned run average in two starts. He has excellent back numbers versus the Jays lineup and should be up to the task tonight. The Jays send J.A. Happ to the mound, and while he hasn’t been that impressive in his four starts this season, he has pitched well against the Red Sox. Both squads haven’t hit the ball well in their last two making the UNDER a logical play here. 

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 8.5 (RC)
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