The Red Sox just took three of four games from Yankees last weekend, then took a dive this week. Boston looks to reverse course back into a winning direction heading into the opener of this four-game series in the Bronx. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Friday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -115 over Boston, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -130.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up
Boston just got swept three games at home by Tampa Bay, losing Thursday’s series finale 9-4. Last weekend, though, the Red Sox took three of four games from these Yankees, and just before that they took two of three from the Rays. So while Boston was hot, with an 8-3 run, it lugs a four-game losing skid into this series.
New York, meanwhile, just split two games at home with Arizona, winning Wednesday’s series finale 7-5. The Yankees then had Thursday off.
Just before that, as mentioned above, New York lost three of four in Boston. So the Yankees are 2-4 over their last six games.
At 68-39 overall New York leads the AL East by seven games over second-place Tampa and by 10.5 games over the 59-51 Red Sox. But the Yankees also now trail Houston by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the American League.
Boston, meanwhile, also trails the Rays by 3.5 games in the scrum for the second American League wild-card spot.
The Yanks lead the season series with the Sox seven games to four.
Friday’s Starting Arms
Lefty Paxton, by our strict standards, is 6/18 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last two. Last Saturday, against this Boston outfit, he got bombed for seven runs and nine hits, including four home runs, through just four innings of a 10-5 Yanks loss. And just before that he gave up seven runs – four earned – on five hits and three walks through 3 1/3 innings of an 8-4 New York loss to Colorado.
The Yankees are 9-9 with Paxton this season, 0-5 over his last five starts, although that’s not all his fault.
Over two starts against the Red Sox, this Paxton allowed seven runs (all in that one outing) and 11 hits through 12 innings. New York split those two games.
Fellow starter Rodriguez is 9/22 on quality starts this year and but three for his last four. Last Saturday he gave up three runs and seven hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 9-5 Boston victory over these Yankees. But over his three starts previous to that he allowed just three runs and ten hits through 20 1/3 innings.
The Sox are a shiny 17-5 with Rodriguez this year, 5-0 over his last five starts, and he can claim a good part of the credit for that.
In two starts this year against New York Rodriguez allowed five runs and 11 hits, along with seven walks, over 11 innings. Boston split those two games.
Friday’s Batting Splits
Boston is batting .261/.325/.466 against left-handed pitching this season.
New York is batting .252/.327/.440 against lefties this season.
The Bullpens
The Red Sox bullpen owns a 4.55 ERA this season and a 1.41 WHIP while allowing a .757 OPS.
The Yankees pen owns a 3.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .715 OPS.
Totals Report
- Overs are a lopsided 66-41 in Red Sox games this season.
- Overs are 59-44 in Yankees games this season.
- Unders are 32-23 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
- Overs are 7-4 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
- Overs are a combined 28-11 with Paxton and Rodriguez this season.
- Get more details: Red Sox at Yankees MLB Match-up Stats
