With spring training underway for all 30 MLB teams, there is a renewed interest in betting the posted props for individual player performances in the regular season. Options like which slugger hits the most home runs and which ace has the most wins are fun and exciting ways to add some more action to the upcoming season.
As opposed to betting on the actual players themselves, one unique twist is betting on the OVER/UNDER for these two milestones. The following is a look at the prop bet odds for most home runs and pitching wins.
2020 MLB Props – Home Runs
The projected total for the most home runs in the 2020 MLB regular season is 51.5. The posted betting odds are -115 for going OVER or staying UNDER that total.
Going back to last season’s results, the New York Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonzo belted 53 home runs to lead the Majors. This was beyond a breakout year for a player in his rookie year. As good as Alonzo was getting the ball out of the park in 2019, duplicating that performance again this season will be tough to do. The word is out on this guy, and starting pitchers will adjust.
The player with the best chance to reach at least 52 home runs would be Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. This guy is a proven commodity that plays every season at a very high level. Trout belted 45 home runs in 2019.
A few of the other top sluggers that can help take this prop OVER are the Kansas City Royals’ Jorge Soler and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger. Each player came very close to the 50-home run mark last season. Cincinnati’s Eugenio Suarez is another big bat, but he is still recovering from shoulder surgery.
The best bet for this prop could be the UNDER. Getting past the 50-home run mark for even the best MLB sluggers is a tall task.
2020 MLB Props- Pitching Wins
The season wins total for any pitcher is set at 20.5. The betting odds for this prop favor the UNDER at -140. The betting odds any pitcher goes OVER this total are set at +110.
A 20-win season is still the ultimate benchmark for a starting pitcher. This achievement automatically puts that pitcher in strong contention for a Cy Young award as well.
Houston Astros’ ace Justin Verlander topped the list last season with 21 wins. He was followed closely by his then-teammate Gerrit Cole with 20 wins. Cole will be anchoring the New York Yankees’ starting rotation this year.
The top game-winner in the NL was the Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg with 18. A few other aces coming off a strong performance in 2019 are the Boston Red Sox’s Eduardo Rodriguez with 19 wins and the Atlanta Braves’ Max Fried with 17 wins.
Going back over the past five seasons, only one pitcher crossed the 20-win threshold in the NL (Jake Arrieta with 22 wins in 2015). Max Scherzer had 20 wins in 2016. In the same five seasons, three different AL pitchers posted more than 20 wins in three different years.
Given the plus money in the odds, rolling the dice on the OVER 20.5 wins this season could be the best way to go in this prop.
