Atlanta Braves (78-52) vs. New York Mets (67-61)
After outlasting the Mets in 14 innings to take the opener of this series Friday night, the Braves ride a six-game winning streak into Saturday’s contest at Citi Field. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -135 over Atlanta, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped that line 20 cents, down to -115, and the total to eight.
Braves vs. Mets Set-Up
Atlanta took the opener of this series Friday night 2-1 in 14 innings, cashing in as a +170 dog on the MLB dime line against Jake deGrom. Both teams scored single runs in the sixth inning, and nobody scored again until newcomer Billy Hamilton knocked one in for the Braves with a single in the top of the 14th frame.
With the victory, Atlanta now owns a six-game winning streak.
Friday’s loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New York.
At 78-52 overall the Braves lead the NL East by six games over second-place Washington. Atlanta also trails the Dodgers by seven games in the race for the best record in the National League, but it’s 7.5 games ahead of St. Louis in the battle for the No. 2 spot.
At 67-61 overall the Mets trail the Braves by ten games in the NL East, but they’re also only two games behind the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
The Braves lead the season series with New York nine games to five.
Saturday’s Starting Arms
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played 11 days ago down in Atlanta, a 5-3 Braves win.
Wheeler, by our strict standards, is 13/24 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last two. Last Sunday he gave up four runs – three earned – and four hits through five innings against Kansas City, although New York won that game anyway 11-5. And just before that, he gave up five runs and 12 hits (!) through five innings of that 5-3 Mets loss to this Atlanta outfit.
On the season New York is 13-11 with Wheeler, and 4-1 over his last five starts, although he can’t take all the credit for that.
Over three starts already this season against the Braves Wheeler allowed 11 ER and 28 hits through 17 innings. The Mets lost two of those three games.
Lefty Fried is 11/24 on quality starts this year and two for his last four. Last Sunday against the Dodgers he gave up three runs, all in the first inning, and eight hits over five frames of a game Atlanta came back and won 5-3. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed eight runs – only five earned – and 23 hits through 22 1/3 innings.
The Braves are 18-6 with Fried this season, 6-0 over his last six starts.
Over three starts already this year against New York Fried allowed six runs and 22 hits through 17 innings. Atlanta won two of those three games.
Saturday’s Batting Splits
Atlanta is batting .260/.338/.454 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup also struck out 26 times (in 14 innings) Friday night.
New York is batting .274/.344/.460 against left-handed pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Braves bullpen owns a 4.28 ERA this season and a 1.44 WHIP while allowing a .763 OPS.
The Mets pen owns a 5.01 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while allowing an .801 OPS. Numbers like those “help” this unit rank among the worst three or four bullpens in Baseball this season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 63-60 in Braves games this season.
- Overs are 62-53 in Mets games this season.
- Overs are 27-26 in games played at Citi Field this season.
- Overs are 6-5 in Braves-Mets games this season.
- Overs are a combined 25-18 with Wheeler and Fried this season.
- Get more details: Braves at Mets MLB Match-up Stats
