The Braves are hot, the Brewers are not, heading into the opener of a three-game series in Beer City Monday night. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee at around -110 over Atlanta, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then flipped the Braves into -110 favorites, and dipped that total to 10.
Braves vs. Brewers Set-Up
Atlanta just swept three games at home from San Diego over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 4-1. Just before the All-Star break, the Braves took two of three games from Miami, and just before that they took two of three from Philadelphia. So Atlanta is 7-1 over its last eight games.
At 57-37 overall the Braves lead the NL East by seven games over Washington, and they now only trail the Dodgers by 4.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National League.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to San Francisco over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series rubber match 8-3. Just before the All-Star break, the Brewers lost two of three at Pittsburgh, and just before that they lost three of four at Cincinnati. So Milwaukee is just 2-7 over its last nine games.
At 48-46 overall the Brewers trail the first-place Cubs by 2.5 games in the NL Central, and they also now trail the Phillies by a half-game in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in May, the Braves took two of three games from the Brewers in Atlanta.
Monday’s Starting Arms
Houser is 0/5 on quality starts this season, 0/3 since joining the rotation in more than a spot-start role three weeks ago. Most recently, nine days ago, he gave up five runs and seven hits through four innings of a 12-2 Milwaukee loss to the Pirates. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 11 runs and 17 hits through 11 innings.
The Brewers are 2-3 when Houser starts this season, 1-2 over his last three outings.
In his only career appearance against Atlanta, last season, Houser scattered three hits and two walks through 2 2/3 innings of scoreless relief.
Lefty Fried, by our stringent standards, is 9/18 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last two. Most recently, nine days ago, he gave up five runs and 11 hits, including a couple of dingers, through five innings of a 5-4 Braves loss to the Marlins. And just before that, he gave up three runs and eight hits in five innings against the Mets.
Atlanta is 12-6 when Fried starts this season, but 0-2 over his last two starts.
In two career starts against Milwaukee, one last year and one earlier this season, Fried allowed four runs and six hits through nine innings. The Braves split those two games.
Monday’s Batting Splits
Atlanta is batting .262/.337/.459 against right-handed pitching this season.
Milwaukee is batting .251/.325/.454 against left-handed pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Braves bullpen owns a 3.68 ERA this season and a 1.38 WHIP while allowing a .733 OPS.
The Brewers pen, after a disastrous weekend against the Giants, owns a 4.61 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .716 OPS.
Totals Report
- Overs are 48-41 in Braves games this season.
- Unders are 48-42 in Brewers games this season.
- Totals are split 23-23 in games played at Miller Park this season.
- Unders are 2-1 in Braves-Brewers games this season.
- Overs are a combined 14-7 when Houser and Fried start this season.
- Get more details: Braves at Brewers MLB Match-up Stats
