Two teams headed in different directions over the last week meet when the Braves and Padres begin a three-game series at Petco Park Monday night. Lefty Ryan Weathers gets the call for San Diego here against fellow Southpaw Max Fried for Atlanta.
Who do we like for our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday’s baseball betting lines opened Atlanta and Fried at around -150 over San Diego and Weathers, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Braves to -155.
Braves-Padres MLB Betting Preview
Atlanta just swept three games at Kansas City over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-4 with a tie-breaking run in the top of the ninth. Just before that, the Braves swept three games at home from Cincinnati. So Atlanta rides a six-game winning streak into Monday night.
San Diego, meanwhile, just lost three of four games at home to Milwaukee, losing Sunday’s series finale 1-0. The Padres loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of ninth Sunday, only to take a called third strike on a full count to end the game.
Just before that, San Diego lost two of three games at the Mets. So the Padres are 2-5 their last seven times out.
These two teams just met three series ago when San Diego took three of four games from the Braves in Atlanta. And last year, the Padres took the season series from the Braves four games to three. So San Diego is 7-4 over the last 11 games against Atlanta.
Monday’s Pitching Match-Up
Weathers is 0/2 on quality starts this season, pitching on a short leash. Two weeks ago, he opened his season by holding Arizona to two runs and five hits through five innings of a 5-4 Padres victory. Then last Tuesday, he limited the Mets to one run and three hits through five innings of a 4-2 San Diego win.
Last year Weathers pitched just one game in the Majors, spending almost all summer toiling in the Minors. But the Padres need a guy right now, playing a lot of games with few days off this month, and he’s it.
In his only previous career appearance against the Braves, two seasons ago, Weathers gave up one unearned run over two innings of work.
Fried is 0/1 on quality starts this year. Back 18 days ago, he opened this season by allowing one run through 3 1/3 innings against Washington, then left the game with a tweaked hammy and hasn’t pitched since. Apparently, he’s good to go now but might be on a short leash Monday night.
Last year Fried hit 19/30 on quality starts, as Atlanta played 20-10 with him.
In his only start against San Diego last year, Fried allowed four runs and nine hits through six frames of an 11-6 Braves loss.
Splits With the Sticks
Yes, it’s a small sample size, but …
Atlanta is batting .331 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .408 team OBP and a .471 team slugging percentage. The Braves have also scored at least five runs each of their last six games.
The Padres are slashing .239/.305/.422 against left-handed pitching. San Diego has also been held to three runs or less five times over its last seven games.
The Bullpens
The Padres bullpen owns a 3.62 ERA this season, along with a 1.37 WHIP and a 2.21 K/BB ratio.
The Atlanta pen owns a 2.95 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 3.20 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
The Braves played 37-17 against left-handed starters last year, and they’re 4-1 against them this year.
San Diego played 58-50 against LH-handed starters last year, and it’s 4-3 against them this season.
Totals Report
- The Overs are 9-7 in Braves games this season.
- The Unders are 9-8 in Padres games.
- The Unders are 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these two teams.
- The Unders played 44-35 at Petco Park last season.
